Call Me Stormy

Finding righteous currents in turbulent times

Archive for the tag “polls”

What Election Trends Mean

Many pollsters predicted a Romney win, but were proven wrong on Election Day 2012. Did pollsters fail to account for cellphone users, or did Romney fail at turning out the GOP vote? Did voter fraud play a role? Find out as Michael Barone analyzes the results of the 2012 election with Glenn Reynolds in PJTV’s Instavision.

Can the Polls Be Trusted?

With the election less than two weeks away now, we’ve seen a proliferation of polls — many of them offering conflicting results. “There’s so much media out there now, and there’s so much more polling out there now, and partisans try to take those polls and spin them for their own benefit on a day to day basis,” says Tom Bevan, founder of the Real Clear Politics website. That’s why he believes the aggregated polling averages on his website have become so popular because Real Clear Politics helps political junkies to “cut through the clutter.” Bevan discusses Real Clear Politics and the changing nature of new media with Reason.TV’s Tracy Oppenheimer.

Women Breaking for GOP

This just in. Polls are showing more and more polls are now supporting Mitt Romney for president. “Yep, it’s all part of the women’s war on Obama,” says Jodi Miller. Also hear about the Rolling Stones, gay Americans and Michael Phelps in this edition of NewsBusted.

Romney Up By 7 in Gallup Poll

Mitt Romney has moved ahead of President Obama by a 52 to 45 percent margin among likely voters in the latest Gallup Poll. Karl Rove says this is a significant threshold, as every candidate who has held this large a lead in mid-October has gone on to win the Presidency.

Meanwhile, signs point to the Obama campaign withdrawing resources from Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and possibly Colorado, ceding those states to Romney. The president is hoping to hold the line by fending off Romney in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Read more at Hot Air.

UPDATE: In another indicator of the shifting battlefield, the Romney campaign is now pulling some, but not all of its, staffers out of North Carolina and reassigning them to more competitive states. The GOP campaign also is weighing whether to advertise in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Romney Surge Gets Media Riled

This just in…NBC Political Director Chuck Todd called the work of pollster Scott Rasmussen slop. “You know what that must mean,” says Jodi Miller. “Romney’s ahead.” Hear more about the Vice Presidential debate, Stacey Dash’s endorsement of Romney and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, chair of the Democratic National Committee, in this edition of NewsBusted.

Ohio Trending to Romney

When it comes to the all-important swing state of Ohio, “the momentum is clearly with Romney,” pollster John Zogby tells Newsmax TV. But it’s the independent vote that really matters in the Buckeye State, he says. When asked how important the independent vote is for Ohio, Zogby tells Newsmax: “Extremely important. For starters, Ohio does not have registration by political party. People will identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans but most voters in Ohio are independents.”

Meanwhile, back in August, Rush Limbaugh cited a University of Colorado economic model that predicted a blowout Romney victory — with the Republican challenger carrying most, if not all, of the swing states to amass more than 300 electoral votes. The researchers behind the model say it has successfully forecast all eight presidential elections since 1980.

Also, we have some confirmation from the Left, as Michael Moore projects a GOP win in November and advises Americans to practice saying “President Romney.” With three weeks left until the election, it’s too early to get cocky. But now’s the time to brace up, mobilize and bear in mind the patented words of Peter Ingemi from DaTechGuy’s Blog: “Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell.”

Parsing the Polls

The Rasmussen and Gallup polls show Mitt Romney nursing a narrow lead over President Obama, but other polls have the incumbent up by anywhere from 7 to 9 percent. With the competing polls projecting different outcomes, which ones can you really trust?

Glenn Reynolds poses that question to Michael Barone in the latest edition of InstaVision. Barone is a veteran expert on the subject, serving as senior political analyst at the Washington Examiner and co-editor of the Almanac of American Politics. H/T PJTV

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